Industrial Technology Decarbonization Pathways
EAF, H₂ Boilers, CCUS; CAPEX/OPEX/IRR; Scenarios
Board-level capital allocation models for major technology transitions (electrification, hydrogen, CCUS). Each pathway includes TRL, dependencies, grid impact, downtime, and IRR/NPV sensitivity to carbon pricing.
What it visualizes
- •current vs target state per asset class (steel, boilers, cement)
- •stranded-asset risk and book value exposure
- •CAPEX/OPEX deltas, IRR/NPV/payback, carbon cost avoided
- •grid reinforcement and renewable PPA requirements
- •scenario engine comparing conservative vs aggressive vs net-zero
Used for
- •board-level capital allocation decisions for technology transitions
- •validating technology readiness and dependencies
- •optimizing pathway selection based on carbon pricing sensitivity
Related System Views
Industrial Technology Decarbonization Pathways
Board-Level Capital Allocation Model – System Impact & Financial Analysis
Scenario Modeling
Transition 1: Blast Furnace Steel Production → Electric Arc Furnace (EAF)
Current State
Blast Furnace Steel Production
Emissions2.4M tCO₂e/yr
Energy18,500 TJ/yr
Fuel TypeCoal + Coke
Stranded Asset Risk
Remaining Life12 years
Book Value€410M
Risk LevelHigh
Transition Architecture
Electric Arc Furnace (EAF)
Emissions380k tCO₂e/yr
Energy9,200 TJ/yr
Fuel TypeRenewable Electricity
Technology & Risk
TRL Level9 / 9
Execution RiskMedium
Supply Chain RiskLow
Financial Analysis
CAPEX
€680M
OPEX Δ
-€28M/yr
+€34M elec, -€62M fossil
IRR
14.8%
NPV
€420M
Payback
7.4 yr
Carbon Cost Avoided – Price Sensitivity
At €90/t
€181.8M/yr
At €120/t
€242.4M/yr
At €150/t
€303M/yr
Grid & Infrastructure Impact
Grid Demand+420 MW
% of Regional Capacity38%
Grid Reinforcement€220M
Renewable PPA Req.3,680 GWh/yr
Operational Impact
Water Impact
+420k m³/yr
Operational Downtime14 months
Workforce Change-420 roles, +180 new
Timeline2028–2032
Critical Dependencies
Grid reinforcement contract
Renewable PPA secured
EAF supplier selection
Industrial Competitiveness Impact
Before
€740/t steel
After
€610/t steel
Change
-17.6%
Transition 2: Natural Gas Boiler → Hydrogen Boiler
Current State
Natural Gas Boiler
Emissions820k tCO₂e/yr
Energy4,200 TJ/yr
Fuel TypeNatural Gas
Stranded Asset Risk
Remaining Life8 years
Book Value€124M
Risk LevelMedium
Transition Architecture
Hydrogen Boiler
Emissions42k tCO₂e/yr
Energy4,800 TJ/yr
Fuel TypeGreen H₂
Technology & Risk
TRL Level7 / 9
Execution RiskHigh
Supply Chain RiskHigh
Financial Analysis
CAPEX
€240M
OPEX Δ
+€18M/yr
+€32M H₂, -€14M gas
IRR
9.2%
NPV
€140M
Payback
9.8 yr
Carbon Cost Avoided – Price Sensitivity
At €90/t
€70M/yr
At €120/t
€93.4M/yr
At €150/t
€116.7M/yr
Grid & Infrastructure Impact
Grid Demand+180 MW
% of Regional Capacity16%
Grid Reinforcement€85M
Renewable PPA Req.1,580 GWh/yr
Operational Impact
Water Impact
+2.4M m³/yr
Operational Downtime6 months
Workforce Change-42 roles, +68 new
Timeline2027–2030
Critical Dependencies
Green H₂ supply contract (42k t/yr)
Electrolyzer capacity allocation
H₂ storage infrastructure
Pipeline connection
Industrial Competitiveness Impact
Before
€142/MWh
After
€168/MWh
Change
+18.3%
Transition 3: Cement Kiln – Fossil Fuel → Cement Kiln + CCUS
Current State
Cement Kiln – Fossil Fuel
Emissions1.8M tCO₂e/yr
Energy8,400 TJ/yr
Fuel TypeCoal + Pet Coke
Stranded Asset Risk
Remaining Life15 years
Book Value€620M
Risk LevelVery High
Transition Architecture
Cement Kiln + CCUS
Emissions280k tCO₂e/yr
Energy9,100 TJ/yr
Fuel TypeAlternative Fuels + CO₂ Capture
Technology & Risk
TRL Level8 / 9
Execution RiskHigh
Supply Chain RiskMedium
Financial Analysis
CAPEX
€1.1B
OPEX Δ
+€54M/yr
+€68M CCUS, -€14M fuel
IRR
6.4%
NPV
€85M
Payback
12.2 yr
Carbon Cost Avoided – Price Sensitivity
At €90/t
€136.8M/yr
At €120/t
€182.4M/yr
At €150/t
€228M/yr
Grid & Infrastructure Impact
Grid Demand+320 MW
% of Regional Capacity29%
Grid Reinforcement€180M
Renewable PPA Req.2,800 GWh/yr
Operational Impact
Water Impact
+3.2M m³/yr
Operational Downtime22 months
Workforce Change-84 roles, +142 new
Timeline2029–2034
Critical Dependencies
CO₂ transport infrastructure
Storage site availability (EU ETS approved)
Environmental permit approval
CCUS subsidy confirmation
Industrial Competitiveness Impact
Before
€92/t cement
After
€114/t cement
Change
+23.9%
Scenario Simulation Engine – Risk-Return Analysis
| Metric | Conservative | Aggressive | Net-Zero 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target Year | 2045 | 2038 | 2035 |
| Total CAPEX | €2.8B | €4.2B | €6.1B |
| Emission Reduction | 68% | 82% | 95% |
| Grid Dependency | +620 MW | +980 MW | +1,420 MW |
| H₂ Demand | 42k t/yr | 85k t/yr | 124k t/yr |
| Annual Carbon Cost (2030) | €184M | €98M | €42M |
| EBITDA Impact (2030) | -€82M | +€124M | +€286M |
| Weighted IRR | 8.2% | 11.4% | 13.8% |
| CO₂ Breakeven Price | €72/t | €58/t | €41/t |