Industrial Emissions Intelligence Framework
Scope 1–3, ETS Exposure, MAC Curve, Site Ranking
This system view models multi-site Scope 1–3 emissions as a capital and risk architecture. It links ETS exposure, allowance coverage, marginal abatement cost, and site readiness into a decision framework for prioritizing decarbonization investments.
Prototype environment. Illustrative data.
What it visualizes
- •emissions baseline and price sensitivity (EU-ETS)
- •allowance coverage vs unhedged exposure and forecast risk
- •site-level ranking by carbon cost, intensity, and transition readiness
- •abatement levers with cost/tCO₂, CAPEX, payback, and execution risk
- •pathway gap vs carbon budget to 2030
Used for
- •prioritizing decarbonization investments based on carbon cost
- •identifying high-impact abatement levers with optimal ROI
- •validating pathway gaps against carbon budget targets
Related System Views
Industrial Emissions Intelligence Framework
Multi-Site Scope 1–3 Carbon Architecture – Risk & Capital Allocation
Total Annual Emissions
5.57MtCO₂e
-12.3%
Carbon Price Assumption
€92/tCO₂
EU-ETS basis
Allowance Coverage
78%covered
22% unhedged
Marginal Abatement Cost
€134/tCO₂
MAC curve
Forecast 2027 Exposure
€342M
if price ↑15%
EU-ETS Exposure (Current)
€284.2M
+5.8%
Carbon Price Sensitivity Model
EU-ETS exposure under price scenarios
If carbon price:
€100/t
Exposure:
€310M
If carbon price:
€120/t
Exposure:
€370M
If carbon price:
€150/t
Exposure:
€462M
Industrial Sites – Emission Risk Ranking
Prioritized by carbon cost exposure, transition readiness, abatement potential
RANK 1
Steel Plant – Duisburg
Highest Risk • Total: 2.4M tCO₂e
ETS Exposure
€142.8M
Scope 1
1.8M tCO₂e
Scope 2
420k tCO₂e
Scope 3
180k tCO₂e
Carbon Intensity
285.2 tCO₂e/€M
+10% Price Impact
€14.3M
Transition Readiness Score
42/ 100
Energy Mix
Grid24%
Gas68%
Onsite8%
Emission Source
Combustion72%
Process24%
Electricity4%
RANK 2
Cement Facility – Marseille
High Risk • Total: 1.8M tCO₂e
ETS Exposure
€98.4M
Scope 1
1.2M tCO₂e
Scope 2
380k tCO₂e
Scope 3
220k tCO₂e
Carbon Intensity
312.7 tCO₂e/€M
+10% Price Impact
€9.8M
Transition Readiness Score
38/ 100
Energy Mix
Grid18%
Gas54%
Onsite28%
Emission Source
Combustion42%
Process52%
Electricity6%
RANK 3
Chemical Plant – Rotterdam
Medium Risk • Total: 950k tCO₂e
ETS Exposure
€32.1M
Scope 1
340k tCO₂e
Scope 2
280k tCO₂e
Scope 3
330k tCO₂e
Carbon Intensity
128.4 tCO₂e/€M
+10% Price Impact
€3.2M
Transition Readiness Score
61/ 100
Energy Mix
Grid42%
Gas38%
Onsite20%
Emission Source
Combustion36%
Process28%
Electricity36%
RANK 4
Logistics Hub – Hamburg
Transition-Ready • Total: 420k tCO₂e
ETS Exposure
€10.9M
Scope 1
80k tCO₂e
Scope 2
160k tCO₂e
Scope 3
180k tCO₂e
Carbon Intensity
94.8 tCO₂e/€M
+10% Price Impact
€1.1M
Transition Readiness Score
72/ 100
Energy Mix
Grid68%
Gas12%
Onsite20%
Emission Source
Combustion18%
Process8%
Electricity74%
Decarbonization Levers – Capital Allocation Priority
Ranked by cost per avoided tonne, regulatory support, execution risk
| Lever | Potential | Cost/tCO₂ | CAPEX | Payback | Regulatory | Exec. Risk | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Efficiency | 520k tCO₂e | €231 | €120M | 5.2 yr | No subsidy | Low | High |
| Waste Heat Recovery | 340k tCO₂e | €250 | €85M | 4.6 yr | Tax Credit | Low | High |
| Electrification | 1.24M tCO₂e | €338 | €420M | 8.2 yr | EU-funded | Medium | High |
| CCUS | 1.8M tCO₂e | €667 | €1.2B | 15.8 yr | EU-funded | High | High |
| Hydrogen Integration | 890k tCO₂e | €764 | €680M | 12.4 yr | Tax Credit | High | Medium |
Emissions Pathway – Business as Usual vs Committed vs Net-Zero
Million tonnes CO₂e, 2020–2030 • Carbon budget gap visible
Business as Usual
Committed Projects
Net-Zero Path
Carbon Budget
Gap: 2.3M tCO₂e by 2030 if no additional CAPEX